Some consider complex explanations the result of deep thinking. I consider complex explanations the result of starting with false premise.
Middle Age stargazing assumed Earth was the center of the Universe around which the other heavenly bodies revolved.
Unfortunately, the sun, moon and stars didn't always follow the motions predicted by the Earth-centered model. Concerned astronomers added correctional epicycles to ensure the Earth-in-the-center model consistently matched observed motion - they added a lot of correctional epicycles.
Their fixes succeeded, but the awkwardness of all those correctional epicycles created an astronomical model that might have been made by Rube Goldberg.
The Earth-centered model became suspiciously complex.
Nicolaus Copernic put the Sun at the center of his model. Suddenly, things made sense.
I've over-simplified the history in order to emphasize the most important part: complicated explanations typically signal something's wrong with the explanation.
Einstein once doubted a colleague's equation for no other reason than that it was too complicated. Einstein believed truth is simple. If an equation rambles on-and-on, it's probably wrong - even if it predicts accurately.
A complication of cogs and wheels is usually the result of starting with a false premise - like, "The Earth is the center of the universe" - without asking, "What if the Sun is in the center instead of the Earth."?
As the computer industry used to say, "Garbage in, garbage out". Careful computation counts for nothing if the basic premise is wrong.
The problem isn't just with the stars, it's everywhere.
The primary challenge to accurate understanding of anything is being able to distinguish a fact, from what only appears to be a fact.
We walk through a world of fog, shadows, and uncertainty.
If you're sure about anything, you're not paying attention.
What can be done?
My answer is praise the Lord and pass the ammunition. In other words, accept the fact that you're not in charge and prepare as best you can for surprises.
It's a modest strategy that allows for no comforting certainty. On the other hand, it prevents foolish assumptions.
That's my plan.
I'm sticking to it.